Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s scheduled visit to Sikkim and Alipurduar on May 29 is more than just a ceremonial tour; it’s a carefully calculated political move with far-reaching implications for West Bengal’s 2026 Assembly elections. The trip comes at a critical juncture for the BJP, which is battling internal dissent, defections, and a resurgent Trinamool Congress (TMC) in North Bengal. In this region, the party once made significant gains.
Modi’s itinerary includes two key events: a golden jubilee celebration of Sikkim’s statehood and a political rally in Alipurduar, a BJP stronghold near the strategically vital Siliguri Corridor. With high-security measures already in place, including a state-wide drone ban from May 27 to 29, the visit underscores the geopolitical and electoral significance of this tour.
Why Sikkim and Alipurduar Matter
1. Sikkim’s 50th Statehood Anniversary: A Symbolic Platform
Sikkim’s golden jubilee celebrations provide Modi with a national stage to reinforce the BJP’s commitment to India’s northeastern states. Chief Minister Prem Singh Tamang (Golay) personally invited Modi, signalling strong BJP-Sikkim ties. Union ministers, including Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, will attend the event, further amplifying its political weight.
The drone ban highlights security concerns and reflects the high-profile nature of the visit. Given Sikkim’s proximity to China and its role in India’s Act East Policy, Modi’s presence sends a message of federal unity and strategic focus.
2. Alipurduar: The BJP’s North Bengal Stronghold
Alipurduar is more than just another campaign stop; it’s the launchpad for the BJP’s 2026 election strategy. The district, which shares borders with Bhutan and Bangladesh, is a BJP bastion, where the party won 30 out of 54 seats in the 2021 Assembly polls.
However, recent defections, like former Union Minister John Barla’s switch to the TMC, have weakened the BJP’s grip. Modi’s rally at Brigade Ground is designed to re-energise party workers and counter the TMC’s growing influence in the tea garden belt, a key voter base.
The Political Chessboard: BJP’s North Bengal Strategy
1. Countering TMC’s Momentum
West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee recently toured North Bengal, holding administrative meetings and consolidating her party’s presence. The TMC has also reshuffled its organisational structure in Birbhum, signalling aggressive prep for 2026.
Modi’s visit, coming just days after Banerjee’s, is a direct challenge to her dominance. The BJP aims to project itself as the party of national security and strong governance by highlighting Operation Sindoor, a successful counterterrorism operation.
2. Fixing Internal Rifts
The BJP’s biggest hurdle isn’t just the TMC, it’s internal discord. The party has lost multiple MLAs to defections, including Barla, and suffered setbacks in recent by-elections. To address this, BJP’s Bengal minder Sunil Bansal has overhauled candidate selection rules:
- Loyalists over turncoats: Only long-term BJP members will be considered for tickets.
- District presidents are barred from contesting to prevent factionalism.
- Non-contesting campaign teams to ensure organisational focus.
Modi’s rally is expected to unify the ranks and signal that the BJP is serious about fixing its grassroots problems before 2026.
2026 Elections: What’s at Stake?
1. The Tea Garden Vote Bank
North Bengal’s tea garden communities, traditionally a BJP stronghold, have shown signs of shifting loyalty. The TMC’s welfare schemes and Birla’s defection could dent the BJP’s prospects. Modi’s rally will likely announce new welfare measures to counter this.
2. Geopolitical Messaging
Alipurduar’s location near the Siliguri Corridor (Chicken’s Neck) makes it a strategic military and trade hub. Modi’s visit to Hasimara Air Force Station (home to Rafale squadrons) reinforces India’s defence readiness amid tensions with China.
By blending security and development narratives, the BJP aims to position itself as the only party capable of safeguarding Bengal’s interests.
Challenges Ahead for the BJP
- Defections & Factionalism: If more leaders like Barla exit, the BJP’s North Bengal plan could collapse.
- TMC’s Grassroots Strength: Mamata Banerjee’s welfare schemes and organisational muscle remain formidable.
- Economic Discontent: Rising inflation and unemployment could undermine Modi’s development pitch.
Conclusion: The Road to 2026 Begins Now
PM Modi’s Sikkim-Alipurduar tour is a make-or-break moment for the BJP in Bengal. It’s not just about celebrating Sikkim’s history or holding a rally; it’s about reclaiming political momentum in a region that could decide who rules Bengal in 2026.
Will Modi’s visit consolidate the BJP’s base, or will TMC’s ground game prevail? The answer may well determine the fate of India’s most fiercely contested state election.
Stay tuned for live updates on May 29.
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